Monday, February 16, 2015

Winning Delhi: Part 2 - The Volunteer force

[Link to Winning Delhi: Part 1 - The Narrative]

BJP's victory was wildly celebrated  and their tenure began with lots of hopes. It wasn't long before the first challenge showed up. In July-August of 2014, the streets of Mukherjee Nagar in Delhi were thronged with students from the Hindi belt, demanding postponement of the UPSC Civil Services prelims exams and a change (as allegedly promised) in the prelims pattern. There were demonstrations, sit-ins, roads were blocked by agitating students and then lathi-charge was ordered!

Many of these students from UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana had held the saffron flag high and campaigned for BJP earlier. They were proud that the new government owes its majority to the whitewash in their respective states. The 'Cultural Nationalist' government, it was hoped would be sympathetic to the cause of Hindi medium students (to which I was sympathetic to an extent). The new government however did not relent and their handling of the issue was botched up in many ways. Speculations of Arun Jaitley opposing any recourse and Rajnath Singh ordering the lathi-charge after promising positive action during election campaigns in UP, did not help the BJP's image. The lathi-charges hurt more than just their bodies.

Of all parties perceptibly insinuating and fueling the agitation, AAP was the most effective in capitalizing on them. AAP articulated the problem sympathetically where they could, including their official website (link here). This agitation gave AAP 5000-7000 volunteers (based on on-ground estimates) of their total volunteer force of around 40,000 (reported here) used for the Delhi campaign. Many of these neo-volunteers will likely carry the AAP flag in UP and Bihar also and it shall be claimed that the Modi government is hypocritical about Cultural Nationalism & its commitment to development of UP and Bihar.

The Volunteer force:

The above case is one instance of AAP identifying and making good the opportunity at hand. This was one rich harvest of volunteers. Other than this one instance AAP has grabbed every opportunity to intervene in community issues, if not by doing something real, then by making noisy, noticeable protests. They've protested against police (their favorite), Jal Board, MCD and any other organ of the state possible. These protests, though widely ridiculed and effectively useless, actually made many people believe that "at least they are doing something" and each protest helped them harvest new volunteers even as some disillusioned ones left.

Another factor in AAP's favor is the choice of their ideology. Edmund Burke had keenly observed:

He who is not a republican at twenty compels one to doubt the generosity of his heart; but he who, after thirty, persists, compels one to doubt the soundness of his mind

The leftist locus of the AAP, very naturally finds resonance with youngsters. An estimated 3.6 lakh new voters got the franchise since April 2014. Many of these contributed as volunteers and evidently most voted for AAP. The young volunteers, mostly students from well-off families would be the most effective campaigners, as we shall see in the next part.

Another effective trick employed by AAP was to approach voters in blocks, religious, social and professional. AAP's closeness with Muslim clerics and community leaders is no secret. Some meetings happened with common knowledge, others (rumored) behind closed doors. The election results somewhat verify these claims. Approximately 78% of muslims voted for AAP. Muslims evidently have strong community preferences in politics in India. Community leaders thus, are potent opinion makers. It was a smart move that ensured both reach and penetration for AAP in the community.

Similarly, AAP approached and ensured support of autorickshaw unions who campaigned for them with AAP posters and flags on their autos, even while they were at work. Other than the speeches, campaigns, spreading paranoia and making promises, AAP's general approach was to reach out to organized social, religious and professional groups rather than looking at voters as amorphous or loosely-bound entities. It helped that they were supported by the Communist groups, who had the pretext of 'keeping communal forces at bay'. With them, they brought any and all of the trade unions, workers' unions and student unions over which they exercised influence.

Two things that AAP worked well, were understanding the demographics of Delhi and choosing the ideology. It must be noted that unions or social-communal blocks are formed of and driven by insecurities. For Muslims and Christians it could be insecurity due to possibility of majority domination, for trade unions, it is due to possibility of capitalist and state oppression. The leftist ideology, is a defining characteristic of the AAP although they deny being bound by ideologies. This ideology feeds and plays up insecurities. The skill employed by AAP was in identifying blocks and engineering the perfect combination between the target block and an appropriate narrative. They worked at it for months and their efforts gave them rich sets of volunteers with diverse affiliations. These would prove very useful in nurturing the perception of "everybody wants Kejriwal" for the impressionable middle class and young voters, when the heat of campaigning would mount.

As a subtext I would like to try and identify the nature of the beast that Mr Kejriwal's mind is. He is not so much an ideological person as he is technical. His choice of ideology in fact, is suited to the ends he desires. His famed "U-turns" are not exceptions to rule but the very nature of his politics. He is ruthlessly directional once he has identified his target. Considerations of honesty, loyalty or consistency would not rein him in. His technical brilliance is in that he gives communication topmost priority. He designs and redesigns his communication strategy. He voraciously assesses public perception and works out appropriate narratives even if it means sacrificing consistency.  I believe there will be more U-turns and they'll keep coming. Most importantly for now, he focuses on the lowest rungs of his volunteer-base, the foot-soldiers, Social Media warriors and on skilling, organizing, reaching out and motivating them for the job.

It is for these reasons that his party gave a better performance despite many of his notable colleagues defecting and working against him. In fact their ouster served him well by strengthening his position within the party where (rhetoric apart) everyone else is a relative minnow now. Mr. Kejriwal's hold on his party is unchallenged and absolute, specially after the Delhi victory. In real terms, his stature in AAP is no different from Gandhis' in Congress, Ms. Mayawati's in BSP or Ms. Jayalalitha's in AIADMK. He commands a cult following with the volunteers as much as any of these do.

In the next part I will be exploring the use of communication channels by AAP. I will later attempt to identify what BJP could have done and can do in future to neutralize this emerging challenge.


(Declaration: The author is a BJP supporter, member and volunteer. The views in this article are based on news reports and on-ground experiences while campaigning during Delhi elections)

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